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Performance of Amanita Market Forecasting

In order to judge the performance of Amanita Market Forecasting offer 5 different perspectives:
(1) the extra-ordinary calls
(2) the very important strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years asset allocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years.
(3) the signals for the rating agency "Timer DigestTimer Digest is a US rating agency that monitors the performance of Amanita Market Forecasting. The intermediate-term Amanita signals are following the rules of Timer Digest." which monitors & ranks the performance of the leading forecasters around the globe
(4) the intermediate-termintermediate term means a time horizon of 1-3 months. Amanita trades (ATs) 2001-7
(5) the Amanita stock picks 2003-6

(1) Extra-ordinary Amanita calls (since 1999)

  1. The first public call right at the beginning of my career was subject of a press release in the 2nd half of 1999 published by many (Austrian) newspapers, warning of the biggest stock market crash since 1929. This warning was mostly ignored but the terrible bear market 2000-3 (started a few months later than expected) slashed technology indices by 80-90% and more.

  2. In late 2000 I wrote that gold (the classical inflation barometer) should bottom out in early April or early May 2001 and start a monster bull market for many years. In April 2001, just after the April 2nd, 2001 bear market bottom (triple bottom) I predicted gold would soar to $1000 by 2007. The main reaction to this call was a lot of disbelief since gold was in the $200s after a 21-year bear market. Gold did take out the $1000 level in early 2008.

  3. The US recession from March to November 2001 was nailed almost to the month, the official call was for a recession to start in the 2nd quarter of 2001.

  4.  In an article in the free area published in late 2001 I projected the ideal month for the ongoing bear market in stocks for October 2002, which came true in the US indices. In late 2001 the general consensus was that the bear market had ended after 9/11.

  5. In 2003 I warned the first time at a public lecture that the passage of Pluto over the Galactic Center in 2007 would trigger a debt crisis.

  6.  When oil was still trading in the $30s at the beginning of the century I forecast that oil would quickly explode to $100-$200 a barrel, at a time when most analysts expected oil to go back to $10.

  7. In 2005 I warned with Jupiter-Pluto depression cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets. (the conjunction of these 2 planets) in December 2007 a very serious recession or even depression would be due - we now know this call did hit the bull's eye. Is it just a coincidence that according to the NBER the US economy started its recession exactly in December 2007... decide yourself. Actually the US already started a weak recession (GDP shrinking by 1-2%) in 2006 but in late 2007 the economic downturn became so serious that even the heavily massaged data could no longer hide the truth, now we are around -4%. Meanwhile the biggest economic crisis since the 1930s is publicly acknowledged and the mainstream scoffing at the depression forecast was put right. Conjunctions of Jupiter occur every 12-13.5 years on average (deviations because of the eccentricity of Pluto's orbit), every 2nd conjunction every 25 years is more grave (last instance: the early 1980s). Every 4th is outright terrible, this is the 50.4 year depression cycleA cycle is a recurring event in the markets.: 1720 South See bubble depression - 1763 Amsterdam - 1816/17 - 1857 - 1907 - 1957/58 weak - 2008.

  8. In the Amanita Investor's Guide 2007 released in December 2006 I warned on many pages of the looming collapse of the biggest real estate bubble in history. As a matter of fact, the real estate market topped out about 2 months later in early 2007 (e.g. as measured by the EPRA/ NAREIT Global Index) and has faltered in the past 2 years.

  9. In 2007 I wrote that the ingress of Pluto into Capricorn in 2008 would lead to nationalizations, and I have to admit that even I was caught by surprise by the speed of nationalizations in 2008.

  10. In late 2007/ early 2008 I warned repeatedly of the bursting of the (Asian) stocks bubble, especially in China & India - exactly at the top.

  11. On 3/11/2009, just 2 days after the stocks bear market low 3/9/2009, I wrote that the bear market was probably over and a very powerful rally should follow. Indeed we saw the biggest advance in 71 years.

  12. Natural gas (NG) was only discussed once in 2009, namely on 9/11/2009 with the forecast that the NG might have ended its 4-year  bear market just a few days before. Thus the NG bull market start was nailed almost to the day.

(2) Strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years Amanita Asset AllocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years. (since 2003)

In the strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years asset allocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years. (long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. investments) the precious metals and other commodities (especially oil) have accounted for the lion share since the beginning (since 2003). Due to the powerful commodity bull market since 2001 (yearly gains of 20-40% on average) the strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for yearsallocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years. has been performing well every year. However, it's not possible to give a precise performance number for 3 reasons:

(1) It makes a big difference in which currency the investor is calculating, and if (outside the US) a currency hedging against the US$ was applied or not. The customers of Amanita Market Forecasting are living in 20+ countries on all continents, so it's not possible to assume a singe currency.
(2) Sometimes 2 similar but not identical choices were offered, e.g. "10% mining stocks either as measured by the HUI or the XAU index"
(3) The instruments were not specified, e.g. "30% gold" can be tracked with many different instruments, which of course results in small differences in the outcome.

The long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. Amanita asset allocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years. is much more important than the intermediate-termintermediate term means a time horizon of 1-3 months. Amanita trades.

(3) Signals for the rating agency "Timer DigestTimer Digest is a US rating agency that monitors the performance of Amanita Market Forecasting. The intermediate-term Amanita signals are following the rules of Timer Digest." (since September 2003)

The intermediate-termintermediate term means a time horizon of 1-3 months. signals are ranked by the independent US rating agency "Timer DigestTimer Digest is a US rating agency that monitors the performance of Amanita Market Forecasting. The intermediate-term Amanita signals are following the rules of Timer Digest." that tracks the leading market timers around the globe. A list of the top rankings can be found here.

The advantages of this system are:
(a) the comparability with competitors: everyone obeys the same rules. Amanita Market Forecasting has been repeatedly been top-ranked ()
(b) simplicity: there are only 3 signals LONG, SHORT, and NEUTRAL
(c) it can be also followed with very little capital (no partial transactions)

The disadvantages compared to the Amanita trades
(a) Ideally, the signals should be only changed once every 3 months but once a month a the maximum which makes the system rather inflexible and slow.
(b) and thus results in a much higher risk tolerance (the market may run longer against the signal)
(c) no automatic price levels to trigger automatic transactions

(4) Amanita trades ATs (2001-2007)

At the beginning, the Amanita trades (ATs) launched in the final weeks of 2001 were the first quantitative performance measure because the signals for the rating agency "Timer DigestTimer Digest is a US rating agency that monitors the performance of Amanita Market Forecasting. The intermediate-term Amanita signals are following the rules of Timer Digest." and the strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years asset allocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years. were not introduced before 2003. In 2003 the Amanita system experienced major changes, above all the strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years (long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years.) positions were separated from the tactical (intermediate-termintermediate term means a time horizon of 1-3 months.) trades, that's why strictly speaking the performance measures until 2003 can't be fully compared to the performance since 2004. This also explains why "on paper" 2002-3 had a so much higher performance than the later years: the missing strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for years profits of 20-30% per year (mainly the high holdings in the commodity holdings) that were still included until 2003. If the original (2001) methodology were still applied, then the performance number would already be higher than 200%. The intermediate-termintermediate term means a time horizon of 1-3 months. Amanita trades are much less important then the long-termLong-term means a time horizon of years. Amanita asset allocation. Time table:
* late 2001: launch with 4 markets (stock indices, precious metals, currencies & bonds)
* 2003 introdcution of the strategicstrategic means a long-term pespective for the markets, i.e. for yearsallocationThe strategic Amanita allocation is optimized for a time horizon of years., important strategy change in the Amanita trades (ATs)
* 2004: introduction of oil as the 5th market, introduction of Amanita constellations to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of Amanita internal forecasts to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of grains as the 5th market
* late March 2006: introduction of trade horoscopes to optimize the performance

 

  

(5) Amanita stock picks (2003-6)

* In December 2004 10 US & German stocks weighed 5-16% were picked for a 12-months period of buy-and-hold (Exelon, Oregon Steel, Burlington, Rhön-Klinikum, Stada, Schwarz Pharma, Owens-Illinois, Alcan, Beru, Hydril) which resulted in a high performance of +32.8% between 12/3/04 and 11/22/05, so the benchmar MSCI World Index was beaten by a nice +24.0%.

* In the year thereafter an absolute return approach was pursued by offering both shares to buy and sell: in Dedcember 2005 19 issues to go long and 10 issues to go short were published that resulted in a satisfying performance (difference between longs and shorts) of +17.4%.

* Please note that unfortunately - due to time constraints - there are currently no Amanita stock picks available, this topic is part of a large research project that should create a full technical stock trading system over the long haul.