(4) Amanita trades ATs (2001-2007)

At the beginning, the Amanita trades (ATs) launched in the final weeks of 2001 were the first quantitative performance measure because the signals for the rating agency "Timer Digest" and the strategic asset allocation were not introduced before 2003. In 2003 the Amanita system experienced major changes, above all the strategic (long-term) positions were separated from the tactical (intermediate-term) trades, that's why strictly speaking the performance measures until 2003 can't be fully compared to the performance since 2004. This also explains why "on paper" 2002-3 had a so much higher performance than the later years: the missing strategic profits of 20-30% per year (mainly the high holdings in the commodity holdings) that were still included until 2003. If the original (2001) methodology were still applied, then the performance number would already be higher than 200%. The intermediate-term Amanita trades are much less important then the long-term Amanita asset allocation. Time table:
* late 2001: launch with 4 markets (stock indices, precious metals, currencies & bonds)
* 2003: introdcution of the strategic allocation, important strategy change in the Amanita trades (ATs)
* 2004: introduction of oil as the 5th market, introduction of Amanita constellations to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of Amanita internal forecasts to optimize the performanceintroduction of Amanita internal forecasts to optimize the performance
* 2005: introduction of grains as the 6th market
* late March 2006: introduction of trade horoscopes to optimize the performance

The Amanita Trades (AT) concept is a trading aid independent of specific trading instruments and there is no "normal" portfolio  because the subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting are on all five continents (the two main markets are Central Europe and the United States) and almost all trade in their home countries.

Example: almost no US trader knows what to do with German warrants, and very few Europeans trade futures or options in New York. Most market participants trade futures, options, warrants, certificates, ETFs etc in their home country. To guarantee the highest independency from specific instruments cash resp. spot prices are used whenever possible (with the exception of commodities and where cash/ spot prices aren't common). All trades are hypothetical.

The performance number does not include the costs entailed by trading specific securities (e.g. commissions, spreads), but on the other hand there is no interest calculated on cash.

I'd like to explain that with the aid of the example AT#47-1:

Each line now in detail:

• headline:       AT #47-1: EUR/USD
  AT stands for Amanita trade
  #47-1 is the ongoing numbering
  EUR/USD is the underlying for the trade, a link to the chart is set
  ---
• direction:       direction: long EUR/ short USD
  either long (to profit from rising prices) or short (to profit from falling prices)
  ---
• time target:       time target: August-October
  expected time the position will be closed
  ---
• price target:       price target: 1.29
  expected price the position will be closed
  ---
• position size (for the money management):       position size: 0.5
  for the money management
  normal: 1 (small: 0.5)
  ---
• volatility multiplier 1-3:       volatility multiplier: 3
  The multiplier (1, 2, or 3) is set for each trade before the first position is bought and is intended to balance out the different volatilities in different markets. These are the normal volatility multipliers (that may be lowered in times of extra-ordinary volatility):
  volatility multiplier 1: individual stocks, commodities (oil, grains, partly also the precious metals, esp. the HUI index)
  volatility multiplier 2: stock indices, precious metals
  volatility multiplier 3: currencies, bonds
  ---
• rating of the trade horoscope: rating of the trade horoscope: 3 amanitas
  rating of the horoscope of the trade based on the time the trade was sent out
  ---
• trades a, b, c, d, e ...:      #47-1b 5/21/04: bought 33% @ 1.210 (buy-stop triggered)
  Positions are entered and exited normally in 3 steps each 33% or 2 steps each 50% (formerly 4x25%). The target for a position is 100% but, depending on the market action, that's not always reached. If the direction of the trade is short "buy" means to go short, e.g. to buy puts.
  The affix "stop order" or "limit order" at the end shows how the trade was triggered. Example how the order #47-1b was placed (sent out some time before it was triggered): #47-1d: buy 33% @ buy-stop 1.225
  If there is no affix the trade was sent out in real-time by e-mail.
  ---
• position now:     position now: 33%
  Says how much of the total position is currently held
  ---
• stop:    stop: 1.176
  The sell-stop level for the position (all prices intraday)
  ---
• last change:    last change 6/3: #47-1b, stop trailed
  Explains the changes sent out in the e-mail.

All trades are either sent out in real-time by e-mail or are triggered by limit or stop orders. Prices are always intraday to the "Timer Digest" signals that are always closing prices.

Types of stop orders used (always based on intraday prices):

• buy stops and sell stops:       
  (1) Normal (= sell) stops are intended to limit losses or to lock in profits, the position is sold when the limit is touched.
  (2) buy stops: a position is entered when the stop level is reached, e.g. that method can be used to trade break-outs.
  ---
• fixed stops and trailing stops:       
  The normal (sell) stop can either be defined as a fixed or a trailing stop.
  (1) fixed stop: the price level is given in advance
  (2) trailing stops are misunderstood quite often. I want to demonstrate their use with the aid of two examples:
  (a) long position entered @ 100 with a trailing stop of 5. At first, the stop is at 95 (=100-5), when the price goes up to 105 the stop is trailed to 100, when the price rises further to 110 the stop is trailed to 105 etc.
  (b) short position entered @ 100 with a trailing stop of 5. At first, the stop is at 105 (=100+5), when the price falls to 95 the stop is trailed to 100, when the price drops to 90 the stop is trailed to 95 etc.
  Rule: if a position is closed at a loss than this market is not traded for a couple of weeks as that's a sign that something is going wrong and one better stays away for some time to get back "in tune".

Practical implementation of Amanita trades

• money management:
  You should take care that you don't risk more than 1-2% of the entire trading capital in a single trade. E.g. if you are trading with US$ 100,000 you ideally shouldn't lose more than $1,000 if the stop is triggered (and certainly not more than $2,000 at most). Obeying that rule guarantees that you are not wiped out if you are stopped out 5-10 times in a row.
  ---
• If you are only active in one market place then you perhaps won't always find a suitable instrument, in this case it is recommended to look for another exchange.
  ---
• If you only have a very small amount to trade at your disposal you can't follow the suggested little steps of 10-20% of the total position, in this case you are better off if watch the intermediate-term signals that are only 100% LONG, 100% SHORT, or NEUTRAL. The big disadvantage is, of course, a much less favourable risk-reward ratio.

Derivatives
With the exception of stocks  I do not suggest specific securities, and particularly no derivates (futures, options, warrants) because derivates are very risky and can entail a loss of 100%. They should only be traded by speculators that are aware of the risks and are able to select the right instrument out of dozens or even hundreds.

Disclaimer
All information and forecasts provided here have been researched to the best of my knowledge but are by no means a solicitation to buy or sell stocks or other securities. I do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and I am not responsible for any errors or omissions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. All transactions in the financial markets are risky. Any liability for losses or damages is excluded.

Explanation:  Example AT#13 (dark greyrow in the table below)
column 1 "6/24/02" (closed): date the position was exited (D/M/YY)
column 2 "5/15/02" (entry): date the position was entered (D/M/YY)
column 3 "13" (AT#): number of the trade
column 4 "Nasdaq 100" (market): this trade was based on the Nasdaq 100 index
column 5 "+12.78%"(result): a raw profit of 12.78% was achieved
column 6 "1" (mul. = volatility multiplier): for a very volatile index such as the NDX the mul. was set to 1 (before the trade was entered)
column 7 "1" (size = position size): normal position size 1
column 8 "40%" (%): when the position was closed only 40% were bought (100% are targeted but not always reached, depending on the market).
column 9 "+5.11%" (+/- = net profit or loss): is the product of the values of columns 5, 6, 7, and 8, in this case 12.78% * 1 * 1 * 0.4 = +5.11%