Timer Digest Featured Timer: Manfred Zimmel

Manfred K. Zimmel is the editor of Amanita Market Forecasting, a market letter based on a holistic synthesis of both unconventional and conventional methods, with financial astrology being the most important timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). tool. Amanita Market Forecasting was founded in 2000.

Manfred became interested in astrology in 1992 as a freshman at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Austria (European Union). In addition to business administration he studied astrology which is the science and art of the connection between heaven and earth. His diploma thesis in 1996-97 was devoted to the empirical investigation of the astrological differences between some 1,800 bankrupt and some 3,500 financially healthy companies. While the results turned out as statistically highly significant, many of the astrological signatures found did not match the expectation.

After having participated in an MBA program in the United States, he began to work on a doctoral thesis on the value of astrology in personnel selection. This dissertation stirred a lot of resistance from the dean of the university and professors that were convinced that this type of a pioneer research was too bold and could possibly damage the reputation of the university. While astrology is mostly accepted as a private hobby, it still is a taboo in the scientific and business world. "Adultery and tax fraud are more openly admitted than the use of astrology by financial professionals", Manfred jokes, and he adds, "I understand the bad reputation of astrology because what's presented as 'astrology' in the mass media is ridiculous and often pure nonsense." However, in the recent years he detects a slow change in the attitudes, he is now a regular speaker at (mostly European) market conferences and advises some large hedge funds and institutions.

He says his timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). approach is pragmatic:
„I have spent many years to test.at" onmouseover="showTT('test');" onmouseout="hideTT();">test different timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). techniques and the only yardstick was whether an approach was consistently and reliably working or not. I have arrived at the conclusion that a lot of the traditional theories and indicators are not really working the way they are supposed to be, and this is true both for astrology and market analysis. One has to start from the scratch to establish firm ground, good programmers are definitely helpful. The only problem is that there are so many ways one could go in researching the markets."

Manfred is convinced that the unique benefit offered by financial astrology is market timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). which is also the weakness of traditional methods such as fundamental and technical analysis. The second big advantage of focusing on timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). instead of prices is that time can hardly be manipulated while in the current market environment prices are subject to heavy manipulations. Astrology, however, can't contribute much to forecasting price levels, so this is an area where the traditional approaches are employed. As a result of his research, a proprietary timing Timing ist in den Amanita-Prognosen so gut wie immer viel wichtiger, genauer & verläßlicher als Preise. Die Standardungenauigkeit für alle Timingangaben wenn nicht explizit anders angegeben ist immer +/- 1 Woche, außer für die Amanita-Pivots (+/- 1-2 Handelstage). instrument called "Amanita pivots" was developed: potential intermediate-term turning points in the markets stated in advance. There is usually one date each month (sometimes two), the time window is often +/- 1 trading day but it can expand to +/- 2 trading days. Each Amanita pivot is assigned a rating that modifies the odds of a major trend reversal.

The ground-breaking research conducted in the past years made him completely re-think the long-term outlook in 2006. Manfred is now convinced that in the next decade (probably before 2015) hyperinflationary cycles are due that go back to the fall of the Roman empire 2,000 years ago. He explains:
„Since 2002 all markets but bonds have been rising. This is rather unique because usually you either have stocks or commodities in a bull market but almost never all markets in the same boat. Moreover, money supply has been growing at an ever-increasing speed since 2005, most of it in M3 that the Fed stopped publishing in 2006 - obviously for good reason. Reconstructed US M3 is now growing almost at the fastest.at" onmouseover="showTT('test');" onmouseout="hideTT();">test speed in history at a huge +14% per year and the rate-of-change is increasing almost every month, especially in the past months. MZM (money with zero maturity) has even been expanding at a whopping +22% (annualized) since the July crisis."

Manfred continues:
„In today's markets liquidity is literally everything, it drives almost everything higher apart from bonds and real estate, at least in nominal terms. In my opinion the key is to understand that the bigger the problems become (we already did get a taste this summer with the CDO & MBS crisis), the more liquidity has to be added in order to „drown" the problems. If there is no rapid change in the policies of the central banks, our fiat money system presumably ends the same way every fiat money experiment in history has ended: the value of the fiat currency approaches the inner value which is zero. The hyperinflationHyperinflation ist Inflation, die völlig aus dem Ruder gerät. Globale Hyperinflation im weiteren Sinne definiere ich als einen Anstieg der $-Inflation auf ein neues Allzeitzeithoch bei 20-30% pro Jahr, Hyperinflation im engeren Sinne ist 20-30% Inflation im Monat. of the Weimar republic in Germany 1923 is a good example, the price of a meal did eventually rise while you were eating. There is a real danger that in 2012 or 2013 the financial system falls apart after a hyperinflation."

So he thinks that all paper securities including government bonds are a great risk and should remain in a bear market the next years while stocks, precious metals and most commodities should rise big at least through 2010 and probably beyond. A major topic that threatens the boom in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is peak oil which means that most likely we are to close to a point where the global oil production can no longer be increased. The +700% rally for the price of a barrel crude oil in the past 8 years could be just the beginning, with much higher prices ahead.

In a more short-term perspective, some constellations are warning of major stress in the financial system in December 2007, although the fear climax of August 2007 should not be topped.

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